Seminer Duyurusu (11 Ocak, 2016)



Dealing with Uncertainties in the Dutch Gas Sector: An exploratory modeling and analysis approach


Sibel Eker,

(Delft University of Technology, Netherlands) 



The long-term development of the Dutch gas sector is faced by deep uncertainty. The policy goal in the sector is providing a secure, sustainable, and affordable gas supply. However, not only the inherent conflicts between these goals but also several deep uncertainties regarding the development of renewable and non-renewable technologies, societal acceptance and institutional aspects impede the achievability of these goals and obscure policy making. To aid decision making, potential policies should be systematically analyzed in terms of their effectiveness to deal with multiple conflicting policy goals and with deep uncertainties. This research investigates policies that are effective in meeting the conflicting interests of the key actors in the Dutch (natural and renewable) gas sector and robust against uncertainties in the long-term. Adopting an exploratory modeling approach, a policy analysis study is conducted based on a large set of transient scenarios generated by a system dynamics simulation model. A framework has been developed and implemented on this set of scenarios, to address three aspects of decision making with multiple methodological options. These three aspects are robustness against uncertainties, multi-criteria to address multiple policy goals and time in the scenario horizon. The results showed a strong method and time-dependence, yet some policies demonstrated considerable robustness against methodological choices, such as the subsidization and communicative stimulation of renewable gas production. Based on this analysis, none of the methodological options can be argued to be strictly better than the others, since these options reflect preferences and decision making processes of the decision makers, yet the method-dependence implies probable fallacies if the robustness and multiple decision criteria are dealt with single methodological choices.


Short Bio: 

Sibel Eker is a PhD Candidate at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management at Delft University of Technology. Obtained from the same university in 2011, she holds a master degree in Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis and Management, with specializations in modelling and simulation. She received her BSc degree in Industrial Engineering at Bogazici University. Her research centers around model-based policy analysis, simulation modeling, deep uncertainty and robust decision making.


All interested are cordially invited.  


DATE:  January 11, 2016 

TIME:  Monday, 15:00-16:00