Desteklenmiş Projeler

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Desteklenmiş Projeler


Accelerating and Rescaling Transitions to Sustainability
The objective of ARTS is to benefit policy, practice and theory related to accelerating sustainability transitions and to create opportunities for innovation (including social innovation) by coupling, rescaling and accelerating sustainability initiatives in European city-regions. ARTS will create interfaces between policy, practice and theory that are spaces for co-creation, theory building, policy experimentation, social innovation and learning. ARTS will have an aggregated impact on transition regions, on national and European policy related to facilitating transitions, and on theory and governance of sustainability transitions. The focal unit of analysis will be innovative activities and related actor-networks that are fundamentally changing energy, food, shelter and mobility provisioning patterns at the scale of a city or region, situated within a wider European context. ARTS will explore how lessons from these initiatives can be drawn for broader transitions to sustainable low-carbon European societies. We seek to identify the values, conditions and mechanisms for accelerating sustainability transitions, develop strategies to assist and stimulate their acceleration and assess them with dynamic modelling approaches. We will explore these conditions based on a diverse set of transition initiatives in five regions across Europe in an inter- and transdisciplinary way: Brighton, Budapest, Dresden, Flanders, and Stockholm. The developed acceleration governance approach and modelling platform, support decision making, and social learning processes to speed-up the implementation of EU’s Sustainable Development and Biodiversity Strategies. They deliver to the energy targets (20/20/20 targets, the EU Energy Strategy), and the targets addressed in the Roadmaps (2050-Competitive Low-carbon Economy, Resource Efficient Europe), while supporting transitions to innovative (Innovation Union Flagship Initiative) socially sustainable (2020 Growth Strategy) low-carbon societies.

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Yerel Araştırmacı Grubunun Lideri:
Gönenç Yücel
Destekleyen:
EU FP7 Collaborative Project ENV 2013
Contact:
gonenc.yucel@boun.edu.tr

Niche Management Policies for Sustainability Transitions in Socio-Technical Systems
The growing size and complexity of socio-technical systems such as energy and transportation, as well as rising concerns about the sustainability of the ways these systems function, create an increasing need for strategies and policies that would facilitate the penetration of sustainability innovations in these systems. Niche-based policies (e.g. strategic niche management (SNM)) that advocate nurturing innovations in protected niches are among such novel policy approaches. Despite being an intuitively appealing approach, its application is not straightforward since there are a set of key interrelated decisions regarding implementation such as size of the niche, the extent of support for an innovation, timing for support withdrawal, and pace of niche up-scaling. In the current state of the art, there is a remarkable absence of specific guiding principles for making such key decisions, and this limits the extent of utilization of niche management policies for facilitating sustainability transitions in socio-technical systems. This absence can mainly be attributed to the dynamic complexity of the innovation development and diffusion processes in the context of socio-technical systems. This research aims to analyze niche management strategies, and to develop a set of specific guidelines for designing and implementing successful strategies under different circumstances in order to facilitate the adoption of sustainability innovations. The analyses will be conducted using an ensemble of simulation models that capture the dynamic complexity of the innovation adoption process. A large set of scenario experiments will be considered in order to make inferences about impacts of policy decisions on adoption dynamics. Building on these inferences, the research aims to contribute to the current understanding about when it is appropriate to use niche management strategies, and how they should be implemented and monitored.

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Proje Koordinatörü ve Baş Araştırmacı:
Gönenç Yücel
Destekleyen:
EU FP7 Marie Curie Actions - Career Integration Grant
Contact:
gonenc.yucel@boun.edu.tr

SIMID – Simulation Modeling to Improve Decision Making in Complex Dynamic Environments
The overall aim of this project is to improve decision making in the presence of dynamic complexity, which is a challenging task. The main reason behind this challenge is the inadequacy of our intuitive skills in coping with complex dynamic decision-making situations. Dynamic complexity often overwhelms human decision makers, leading to poor understanding, which further leads to poor decisions. For the same reasons, effective learning does not typically take place in complex decision-making environments. Simulation game-based human experiments show that performances of participants initially improve, but quickly plateau at substantially non-optimum levels after a few trials with the same game (Paich and Sterman, 1993; Diehl and Sterman, 1995; Langley and Morecroft, 2004; Moxnes, 2004; Yasarcan, 2010). Most interestingly, the dynamic complexity we refer to does not necessitate hundreds or even tens of variables. It has been established that the dynamics of just 2-3 variables can be very complex if their interactions involve delayed feedback loops and non-linear relations (Langley and Morecroft, 2004; Moxnes, 2004; Moxnes and Saysel, 2009; Sterman 2000 and 2002; Yasarcan and Barlas, 2005; Yasarcan, 2007, 2010, and 2011). This type of complexity involving only a few variables is also called systemic-dynamic complexity. A typical real-life example of the problems caused by systemic-dynamic complexity is supply-chain oscillations. Inventories on a supply chain oscillate as a result of over or under ordering mainly caused by the weakness of human decision making in taking into account the delays in shipments. Managing sustainable growth in public and private domains is another typical example dynamic complexity. In early growth phases, growth is relatively easy and the decision makers do not recognize the approaching limits, especially since such limits are not fixed, but dynamically created by the very growth process itself. When the growth limits are recognized, it is often too late to avoid the imminent collapse, due to delays and non-linear effects in the system. Boom-and-bust histories of many private companies and the current global debate about how to prevent a catastrophic climate change are examples of systemic complexity of growth management. The main objective of this project is to explore the roots of such decision complexities on relatively small simulation models and suggest methods and heuristics to improve decision making in complex environments.
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Proje Yürütücüsü:
Hakan YAŞARCAN
Destekleyen:
Marie Curie International Reintegration Grant
İletişim:
hakan.yasarcan@boun.edu.tr

Lise ile Üniversite Arasındaki Arz-Talep Dengesizliğinin Dinamiği (ÖSYS)
Projenin amacı, lise mezunları ile üniversite kontenjanları arasındaki arz-talep dengesizliğini (Gerek sayı, gerek tür bakımından) modelleyip sonuçlarını araştırmaktır. Benzetim modeli, ÖSS ile başlayıp, üniversiteye yerleştirme ile sona eren sürecin tümünü makro düzeyde canlandırmaktadır. Tüm belli başlı lise türleri, üniversite türleri ve branşları göz önüne alınmıştır. Modelin çıktıları, gerçek verilerle büyük bir benzerlik göstermektedir. İleriye yönelik senaryo analizleri, ileride doğabilecek sorunları ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Model, ÖSYM, Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı ve YÖK gibi kuruluşlar tarafından kullanılabilecektir.


Proje Yürütücüsü:
Yaman BARLAS
Araştırmacılar:
Andaç Turgut ARIKAN
Hakan YAŞARCAN
Makale:
Bir Benzetim Modeli Üzerinde ÖSYS Sorunlarının Analizi
Destekleyen:
TÜBİTAK
İletişim:
ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Stratejik Üniversite Yönetimi İçin Dinamik Benzetim Oyunu (ÜNİYÖN)
Üniversite yönetimi, eğitim, araştırma ve hizmet arasındaki hassas dengeyi bulmaya çalışan karmaşık bir uğraştır. Bu iş Türkiye'de özellikle zordur, çünkü bir yandan gerek öğretim üyeleri, gerek üniversite yönetimi artan mali zorluklarla karşı karşıyadır, bir yandan da öğrenci talebi giderek artmaktadır. Modelin amacı, yaşanan bu sürecin kritik dengeleri nasıl etkileyebileceğini ve bu durumda hangi kararların alınması gerektiğini araştırmaktır. Modelin "katılımlı" versiyonunda, kararlar etkileşimli bir biçimde bir "oyuncu" tarafından benzetim süresince alınmaktadır. Model, üniversite yönetim organları tarafından kullanılabilir.


Proje Yürütücüsü:
Yaman BARLAS
Araştırmacılar:
Vedat Güçlü DİKER
Burak GÜNERALP
Makale:
A Dynamic Simulation Game for Strategic University Management (UNIGAME)
Destekleyen:
TÜBİTAK
İletişim:
ybarlas@boun.edu.tr