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Ongoing and Completed Projects of The Group

Completed	A Simulation Model for Blood Cholesterol Dynamics and Related Disorders In this study, system dynamics method, which has a systemic view that other cholesterol studies lack, is employed in modeling and analyzing the dynamics of cholesterol metabolism. For both healthy and hypercholesterolemic subjects the model is able to generate realistic behaviors of different types of blood cholesterol, and body weight. It is observed that exercise is more effective than diet. In the case of hypercholesterolemic patients, the model effectively mimics the way the drugs work and shows how the patient can reach healthier cholesterol levels. Project team member: Emre M. DEMİREZEN Contact: emre.demirezen@gmail.com

Completed	Application of Genetic Algorithms to Analysis and Policy Design in System Dynamics The main objective in this study is to explore Genetic Algorithms’(GA) adequacy in applications to System Dynamics methodology. The study focuses on six different dynamic models, three of them being from the area of control theory and the other three from socio-economic System Dynamics literature. For each model, we determine an appropriate objective function based on some desired dynamic behavior and set of analysis parameters. The analysis indicates that Genetic Algorithms obtain good solutions, i.e. behaviors that match the desired behaviors. Project team member: Ceyhun EKSİN Contact: ceyhuneksin@gmail.com

Completed	Supply Chain Modeling and Analysis at Alternative Levels of Aggregation This research asks the general questions about the level of aggregation in the scope of a multiagent supply chain. The effects of individual firms’ features on aggregate dynamics are analyzed based on a disaggregated agent-based model (ABM). Demand forecasting, order batching, and dynamic pricing are shown to be the causes of variability and bullwhip effect in aggregate orders and inventories. Given the ABM findings, an aggregated system dynamics (SD) model is built. SD model is shown to capture the general behavioral pattern under demand forecasting, but not under order batching. SD also fails to capture the variability amplification characteristics of dynamic pricing. Project team member: Güven DEMİREL Contact: guven.demirel@boun.edu.tr

	Dynamic Systems Simulation for the Analysis of Problems of Higher Education This TÜBİTAK project is a major component of our long-term research on "model-based analysis of education problems in Turkey." A scientific, objective and long-term analysis of the higher education issues in Türkiye represents a need of increasing urgency in the nation's contemporary agenda. In this context, this research consists of two modeling projects: a. Dynamics of Supply-Demand Bottleneck between the High Schools and Universities in Turkey b. A Dynamic Simulation Game for Strategic University Management (UNIGAME) (Details about these two projects are given below)

Completed	Dynamics of Supply-Demand Bottleneck between the High Schools and Universities in Turkey The purpose is to model the supply-demand dynamics (in quantity and in quality) between the high school graduates and university capacities, and to investigate the long-term implications of the bottleneck. The simulation model represents at a macro level, the entire university application and placement process. All major high school and university categories are taken into account. Simulation outputs are analyzed and validated with 1988-1997 real data and extensive scenario analysis is carried out in order to investigate the potential long-term problems and test various solutions typically discussed in the policy circles. The model can be potentially used by ÖSYM Project team members: Andaç Turgut ARIKAN Hakan YAŞARCAN Paper: Bir Benzetim Modeli Üzerinde ÖSYS Sorunlarının Analizi (Only available in Turkish) Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	A Dynamic Simulation Game for Strategic University Management (UNIGAME) Strategic university management is a complex task, seeking a delicate balance between education, research and service. This is especially difficult in Turkey where the student demand is ever increasing and both the university administration and the faculty members are under severe financial pressures. The purpose of the simulation model is to investigate how this process could potentially hurt the delicate balance that must exist between education, research and service and what measures can be taken to alleviate the potential problem. The validity of the model is tested using 1983-1997 Boğaziçi University data. In the "participatory" (gaming) version of the model (which starts in 1993), certain decisions are made by a "player" interactively during the simulation. The model can be potentially used by the different decision making units of the universities, especially in strategic planning. There is also a more generic “universal” version of the game. Project team members: Vedat Güçlü DİKER Burak GÜNERALP Paper: A Dynamic Simulation Game For Strategic University Management (UNIGAME) Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	Interactive Balanced Growth Management Game Managing the growth of a company is a complex task that involves dynamic interactions between several key strategic functions and decisions that may often conflict. The purpose of this simulation game is to provide an understanding of the interactions that exist between pricing, advertising/marketing, desired inventory level, workforce increase/ reduction and capacity increase/reduction decisions in a company. The goal of the player is to be able to coordinate these decisions so that market growth can be sustained. Project team members: Özgür ÜLKÜ Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	Modeling the Dynamics of Global Sustainability, Based on Developed-Developing Nations Distinction In this project it is aimed to developed a global dynamic simulation model in order to study interactions of economy and environment, focusing on the primary dictinct charecteristics of developed (North) and developing (South) nations. Completed model provides a good simulation environment suitable for policy testing. Click to see the abstract of the project. Click to see the conclusion of the project report. Project team member: Gönenç YÜCEL Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	A Dynamic Simulation Model For Strategic Quality Management The objective of this research is to build a dynamic comprehensive simulation model of quality management from the perspective of strategic management. The model is used as a platform to analyze various quality-related problems discussed in Total Quality Management literature (such as lack of top management commitment, lack of long-term perspective, resistance to change within the organization, unrealistic goal setting) and to test the effectiveness of various management strategies. In the interactive game version, a player makes eight strategic quality-related decisions so as to achieve consistent quality improvement in the company. Project team member: Funda GÜRGÖZE Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	A Dynamic Simulation Model For Long-Term Water Planning in İstanbul A simulation model is built in order to carry out long-term dynamic analysis of water planning/ditribution problem of İstanbul. The model incorporates both mechanical and managerial/policy aspects of the water planning/distribution problem. The model predictions for a 10-year period between 1985 and 1995 match very well the real data, both in terms of water levels in reservoirs and consumptions in major districts. The model provides long-term future predictions (1998-2005) of alternative scenarios and management strategies. It can be used by the municipality of İstanbul and İSKİ. Project team member: Günhan ÖZEVİN Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	Dynamic Systems Modeling For Comprehensive Environmental Analysis of GAP; South-Eastern Anotolia Irrigation Project Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) is an integrated regional development project based on water resources development and large irrigation schemes. By the end of the project 1.7 million hectares of land is planned to be irrigated and a hydroelectricity capacity of 7500 MW is targeted. The overall idea is the economic integration of the so called “underdeveloped” region to national and global economy through economic stimulation that will be initiated by a regional increase in material resources supply. The situation of competing goods such as food, feed, fibre, oil crops and animal products in the market promotes certain farmer strategies while it subsides others. Different farm systems (mixed, monoculture, polyculture and different crop rotations) induce different environmental impacts such as salinisation, pesticide accumulation, nitrate leaching, overgrazing of rangelands and erosion. In this research, system dynamics modelling and simulation methodology is used for analysis of regional demographic dynamics together with the above mentioned environmental parameters through 40 years simulation horizon and alternative management strategies are investigated. Project team member: A. Kerem SAYSEL (Assoc. Prof.) (e-mail: ali.saysel@boun.edu.tr) Paper: A Dynamic Model of Salinization on Irrigated Lands Paper: Long Term Sustainability In An Agricultural Development Project: A System Dynamics Approach

Completed	A Strategic Management Model For Insurance Companies A dynamic model-based management consultancy project was carried out for a major insurance company in Türkiye. The objective of the project was to address certain strategic managerial problems of the company by using systemic dynamic simulation. Recently, a generic interactive gaming version of the model is completed, in which the player makes pricing, marketing/advertising, agency opening/closing and workforce increase/reduction decisions in the policies and claims departments. The simulation model, especially the game version can be used as a “learning laboratory” in the insurance sector as well as other service companies with similar problems. Project team member: Korkut ÇIRAK Paper: Dynamic Simulation for Strategic Insurance Management Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	An Interactive Simulation Game For Software Management (SOFTSIM) This is an interactive simulator for top-level management of large-scale software projects. The goal of the game is to complete a given project within certain time and budget constraints. The decisions made by the player are: workforce increase/reduction and the % of the total workforce allocated to development, quality assurance and rework activities. The game can also be played by high level managers of other projects of similar nature, such as production or construction. Project team member: Hüseyin TOPALOĞLU Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	Dynamic Analysis and Long-Term Prevention of Deforestation and Soil Erosion The main aim of this research is to build a system dynamics simulation model of the soil erosion in Turkey by analyzing the main mechanisms that accelerate soil erosion on croplands, pasture and meadows, and forest areas countrywide. Based on the information taken from Soil Conservation and Management Master Plan of Turkey published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, all major soil groups which are subcategorized in the model and traced individually for their erosion susceptibility and erosion degree. The results generated by the model indicate that four million hectares of our soils will loose their entire topsoil and even their subsoil in the next 50 years. The homogeneous soil groups that loose all of their topsoil and subsoil are mainly pastures and meadows and also forests. Thus, only focusing on agricultural areas for erosion control is not sufficient. The model can be used as a decision support tool by policy and research institutions. Project team member: Yeşim TOZAN Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Completed	A Behavior Validity Testing Environment (BTS) This is a software for testing the behavioral validity of system dynamics models. It consists of multiple tools and tests suitable for measuring typical dynamic pattern components (slopes, periods, amplitudes, phase shifts, mean, variance, etc) and comparing them with real data when available Project team member: Hüseyin TOPALOĞLU Serkan YILANKAYA Contact: ybarlas@boun.edu.tr BTS software can be downloaded from Resources page.